October 2019 Was Earth’s Second Warmest October on Record
Arctic sea ice coverage also shrank to a record low last month.
Last month was Earth’s second-hottest October in recorded history, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The average global land and ocean surface temperatures in October were 1.76 degrees above the 20th century average. This was just 0.11 degrees shy of the record set in October 2015 — the highest since record keeping began in 1880.
According to the experts, their calculations suggest that there is a 99.9% chance that 2019 will be in the top 5 and top 10 warmest years on record, but less than a 0.01% chance of it being the warmest year.
Records of global mean surface temperature changes date back to 1880. Of the 136 years in NASA’s database, the past three years (2014, 2015, 2016) have produced the greatest temperature anomalies. With the end of the year approaching, it looks like 2017 will end up breaking into the top three, and will likely be the warmest non-El Niño year on record.
The January through October year-to-date period was the second warmest on record globally, just 0.09°C behind 2016, according to NOAA. Their global annual temperature ranking outlook indicated that it is virtually certain that 2019 will end among the top five warmest years in Earth’s history (and virtually certain that it will not be the warmest year on record).
This means that the six warmest years on record globally since 1880 will end up being the last six years—2014 through 2019—with the peak occurring during the strong El Niño year of 2016. NOAA gave an 86% chance that 2019 would be the second warmest year on record, behind 2016. Many regions of the globe are on pace to have their warmest year on record, including Southeast Asia, southern Africa, and portions of Mexico, Alaska, Europe, and Australia.
While alarming, the record-breaking statistics shouldn’t be surprising to anyone who follows global climate trends. The Earth has been warming at a rapid rate in recent decades, and climate scientists blame the carbon dioxide being dumped into the atmosphere by human activity.
Arctic sea ice coverage was the smallest ever recorded for October, at 32.2% below the 1981–2010 average. The 10 smallest Arctic sea ice extents for October have occurred since 2007.
