Carbon pollution fell 17 percent during coronavirus lockdown peak

The world cut its daily carbon dioxide emissions by 17 percent at the peak of the pandemic shutdown last month, a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

But with life and heat-trapping gas levels inching back toward normal, the brief pollution break will likely be “a drop in the ocean” when it comes to climate change, scientists said study lead author Corinne LeQuere, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia.

In their study of carbon dioxide emissions during the coronavirus pandemic, an international team of scientists calculated that pollution levels are heading back up — and for the year will end up between 4 percent and 7 percent lower than 2019 levels. That’s still the biggest annual drop in carbon emissions since World War II.

It’ll be 7 percent if the strictest lockdown rules remain all year long across much of the globe, 4 percent if they are lifted soon.

For a week in April, the United States cut its carbon dioxide levels by about one-third. China, the world’s biggest emitter of heat-trapping gases, sliced its carbon pollution by nearly a quarter in February, according to a study Tuesday in the journal Nature Climate Change. India and Europe cut emissions by 26 percent and 27 percent respectively.

The biggest global drop was from April 4 through 9 when the world was spewing 18.7 million tons (17 million metric tons) of carbon pollution a day less than it was doing on New Year’s Day.

China, the world’s biggest emitter of heat-trapping gases, sliced its carbon pollution by nearly a quarter in February. India and Europe cut emissions by 26 percent and 27 percent respectively.

The biggest global drop was from April 4 through 9 when the world was spewing 18.7 million fewer tonnes of carbon pollution a day than on New Year’s Day.

Such low global emission levels have not been recorded since 2006.

But by April 30, the world’s carbon pollution levels had grown by 3.3 million tonnes a day from its low point earlier in the month.

Carbon dioxide stays in the air for about a century.

While the aviation sector is one of the hardest hit by the lockdown, it accounts for around 3 percent of global emissions – but it accounted for 10 percent of the emissions drop during the early days of the pandemic-prompted lockdown.

The emissions from higher energy use as people began working from home did little to offset the drop in emissions from other sectors.

The study also makes the bold claim that in some countries, emissions fell by 26 percent on average at peak confinement.

However, this “extreme” effect of the Covid-19 global lockdown on daily emissions of carbon won’t last, the analysis predicts.

If the world could keep up annual emission cuts like this without a pandemic for a couple decades, there’s a decent chance Earth can avoid warming another 1.8 degrees (1 degree Celsius) of warming from now, study authors said.

The study was carried out by Global Carbon Project, a consortium of international scientists that produces the authoritative annual estimate of carbon dioxide emissions. They looked at 450 databases showing daily energy use and introduced a measurement scale for pandemic-related societal “confinement” in its estimates.

Nearly half the emission reductions came from less transportation pollution, mostly involving cars and trucks, the authors said. By contrast, the study found that drastic reductions in air travel only accounted for 10 percent of the overall pollution drop.